State of the South West 2008

Age

1.26 The structure of the South West is more elderly than England as a whole, with a higher proportion in all age groups over 50.

1.27 The distribution of older people in the South West reflects the attraction of the rural coast as a retirement destination, with Christchurch, West Somerset, East Devon and East Dorset all having more than 30% of the population of retirement age. Of the ten most ‘retired’ districts in England, five are in the South West. The highest proportion of children tends to be found inland in the north of the region, with North Wiltshire, Gloucester, Kennet, Swindon, Mendip and South Gloucestershire having more than 20% of the population under 16. The highest proportions of working age (taken here as the population aged 16 and over but below the retirement age of 60 for women and 65 for men) are unsurprisingly to be found in the major towns, with the highest proportion being 67% in Exeter.

1.28 The population of South West England, as with much of Europe, is forecast to have an increasingly older structure, with a higher proportion in the older age groups and fewer in the younger. In addition, given the rising population overall, the number of older people is also forecast to rise. In 2007, the 2004-based projections indicated a proportion of people of 65 and over of 19.0%. This is projected to reach 25.2% by 2026, whilst the number of people of 65 and over is set to rise from 976,300 to over 1,455,000. More strikingly, the number of people of 85 and over is projected to rise from 140,900 in 2007 to 233,000 in 2026. The projections suggest that the South West will continue to have a more elderly population structure than the England average.

1.29 The number of people in the workforce is determined by a range of factors, including the length of full time education and the state retirement age, both of which are likely to rise in the medium term (see Skills and Labour Market chapters). One fundamental element is the number of people of working age. Using the number of people aged 16-64 as an approximate measure of the working age population, the number of people in this age group is expected to rise from about 3,319,900 in 2007 to just over 3,441,000 in 2029. The number of people under 16 is projected to rise slightly (from 914,800 to 933,900) over the period. On this basis, the dependency ratio (the proportion of working age to young and old) rises from 0.59 people to be supported by each potential worker to 0.70.

1.30 For information on size of the labour force please see the chapter on Labour Market.