State of the South West 2008

The climate is not naturally static: it has changed in the past, over centuries, millennia and even longer periods of time. However, human actions are now changing the state of the climate at an unprecedented rate. The latest research has indicated that because of a rapid warming trend over the past 30 years, the earth is now at its warmest in 12,000 years (Hansen et al., 2006).

Although the UK is on line for meeting greenhouse gas targets set by the Kyoto agreement by 2008–2012 (12.5% below 1990 levels), it is currently unlikely that it will meet its own domestically set target of 20% below 1990 levels by 2010. Despite making carbon dioxide cuts, the region still needs to adapt to the changes in the climate system that are unavoidable due to past emissions.

There is already evidence of climate change in the South West. During the last 100 years average annual temperature increased by about 0.8°C - 0.9°C in the region. Met Office records for Exmouth exist from 1930, which show that the last decade (1995-2004) is the warmest on record, followed by the 1980s and the 1970s. For the whole of the UK, 2006 was the warmest year on record with a mean temperature of 9.7 °C, which was 1.1 °C above the 1971-2000 long-term average. Ranked warmest years going back to 1914 are 2006, 2003, 2004, 2002 and 2005, (Met Office, 2007).

Within the South West, average temperatures in the 2050s may be as much as 3.5°C warmer in summer; winters may be 5 - 20% wetter and summers 10 - 40% drier. Heavy winter precipitation could also be about twice as frequent by the 2080s, (South West Climate Change Impacts Partnership, 2003).

Warmer springs are also affecting the migration of birds, with the annual arrival of chiffchaffs now a full 16 days earlier than in 1916. Similar changes have also been noted in the first spawning dates of frogs, (UK Phenology Network, 2005).

Cases of malignant melanoma, the most aggressive of skin cancers associated with exposure to the sun, is a particular problem in the region with high mortality rates compared to England and Wales.  The South West of Britain has the highest rate of skin cancer in the UK with approximately 250 deaths per year. Approximately 80% of deaths from skin cancer are due to Malignant Melanoma. These deaths are almost entirely preventable, and affect a younger age group than most cancers. (Department of Health, 2007).

Sea-level rise in the South West could be the highest in Great Britain, with a rise between 20-80cm by the 2080s, depending on emissions scenarios, (UKCIP, 2005). Newlyn (Cornwall) has one of the longest sea level records in the UK and records show that historic mean sea level here has risen by approximately 15cm since 1915, (Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, 2006). Mean wave height from trough to crest has also increased, from 1.8m in 1962 to 2.3m today (Seven Stones Light-vessel). Such changes may adversely affect sea defences, harbours, homes, businesses, infrastructure and maritime heritage as well as natural assets and biodiversity.

More information about climate change is available from the South West Observatory Environment website and the South West Climate Change Impacts Partnership.  There are also climate change indicators used to monitor progress of the Regional Environment Strategy.