Climate Change
8.69 The climate is changing and is likely to continue to do so. The NHS has started to predict the likely impacts on health that this is likely to pose and has outlined these in 'Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK'.
8.70 Both increasing and decreasing temperatures could have an impact on mortality, particularly amongst the elderly. It is estimated that each year 93% of excess winter deaths occur in the over 65s, equating to about 2,200 excess deaths, and this could be exacerbated by colder winters. Deepening of the intensity of storms could result in an increase in the number of injuries due to falling debris. Mental health could be affected in the aftermath of flooding and there could be implications arising from the contamination of drinking water through flooding. The emergence of some vector-borne diseases is possible but difficult to predict. International travel could also provide complications.
8.71 Food poisoning would be likely to increase along with rising temperatures. Currently there are about 100,000 food poisoning cases per year but there would be an estimated increase of 10,000 cases per year if temperatures rose. If summers become sunnier, there could be an increase in the risks attached to UV exposure. People’s behaviour will be important in determining the impact of this but increased exposure could exacerbate mortality from malignant melanoma.
8.72 Measures to reduce carbon emissions could have positive health benefits and reduced car usage could mean more walking and cycling. In general, levels of air pollution in the UK are falling, and will continue to fall, which could lead to a decline in pollution related deaths and illnesses.