Introduction
9.1 This chapter examines the state of crime in the South West by considering both crimes recorded by the police and the results of the British Crime Survey (for an explanation of the main differences of these two data sources see the technical note in paragraphs 9.2 - 9.5. below).
9.2 Technical note: Policy priorities are guided by the targets outlined in the Treasury’s Spending Review. In 2002 the spending review included targets to reduce crime and the fear of crime whilst also reducing the gap between the highest Crime and Disorder Reduction Partnerships and other areas.
9.3 Recorded crime figures are compiled from police returns to the Home Office. Recorded offences are the most readily available measures of the incidence of crime but they do not necessarily indicate the true extent of crime. Offences that are recorded by the police are merely a subset of crimes that are reported to them, and those are a subset of the crimes that actually occur (since many crimes are never reported to the police). Home Office research 2 suggests that only around 42% of crimes are reported to the police, and from this only 70% are officially recorded. The National Crime Recording Standard was introduced in April 2002. Its aims are to take a more victim oriented approach to crime recording and to provide a greater consistency between police forces in crime recording. The result of this was that there was an artificial increase in overall crime and it means that data before and after the introduction of the Standard are not directly comparable. For this reason this chapter only looks at recorded crime data from 2002/03 onwards.
9.4 As mentioned, police recorded crime figures do not provide a full picture of crime. The decision to report an incident to the police depends on a number of factors, typically influenced by the victim's personal circumstances, attitude to the police and the type of crime. The British Crime Survey (BCS), by contrast, counts crimes experienced by interviewees in the previous year, regardless of whether they have been reported to or recorded by the police. It is a victimisation survey in which adults aged 16 years or over living in private households are asked questions about offences against their household (such as theft or damage of household property) and about personal offences such as assault or robbery. The survey also explores people's perceptions of crime and anti-social behaviour, fear of crime, contact with the police, and drug misuse. However, certain crimes such as murder, where the victim cannot be interviewed, and 'victimless crimes' (e.g. possession of drugs), are excluded from the BCS. Equally since the BCS is a measure of crime against private households, commercial crime is excluded. It also does not currently cover crimes against children.
9.5 The BCS estimates are subject to sampling error, therefore differences between estimates from successive years of the survey or between population sub-groups may occur by chance. Tests of statistical significance are used to identify which differences are unlikely to have occurred by chance, these are provided in the BCS results at either the 5 or 10% level. In this chapter where significance levels are mentioned this is at the 5% level (the level at which there is a one in twenty chance of an observed difference being solely due to chance).
9.6 Volume of crime is related to, amongst other things, the size of an area's population. The more people that live in an area, the more potential victims and/or offenders there could be. Police statistics record where an offence takes place and to standardise the data for differences in population size, crime data are expressed as a rate per 1,000 resident population. However, rates that are based on resident populations can overestimate levels of crime in areas where a large number of people visit from outside (e.g. seaside towns such as Bournemouth during the summer months).