State of the South West 2008

Population Trends

1.8 The South West’s population grew by 619,600 between 1985 and 2006, at an annual average rate of 0.63%. In the 1990s the average annual growth rate was 0.4%; in the 21^st Century the average has been 0.69%.

1.9 All districts of the region have seen population growth over the period 1986-2006, with the exception of Plymouth which saw a slight fall.  Rural areas have shown the most rapid increase in population, with North Dorset rising by over 30% in the period and Teignbridge, Torridge, Restormel, North Cornwall, North Wiltshire and Mid Devon all growing by more than 20%. There is a clear positive relationship between the ‘ rurality’ of an area and the population growth, with large urban areas growing by 6.9% over the 20 years and rural 80 areas growing by 18.1%.

1.10 Official projections of population growth take account of existing trends in birth, fertility, life expectancy, death and migration but do not reflect potential policy decisions in house building or economic change. On this basis, the 2004-based projections show that the region’s population is expected to reach 5,439,900 by 2016, and 5,775,400 by 2026. The 2004-based projections reflect an increase in the expected rate of growth compared to the previous 2003-based figures (the previous forecast for 2022 was 5,632,700; the latest is 5,645,200).

1.11 The highest levels of growth are forecast for the north of the region, with South Gloucestershire, North Somerset, West Wiltshire and the City of Bristol expected to gain 121,900 people in total from 2006 to 2026. The fastest rates, though, are expected to continue in rural areas, with Torridge, West Wiltshire, Mid-Devon and Restormel all expected to grow by more than 20% over the same period.