Migration
1.16 Sources and Reliability - Migration patterns are the most difficult elements of demography to measure and project. Annual numbers of migrants generally vary more than birth and death rates (with economic conditions - especially job loss or creation, house prices and house building) and there is no register of migration as reliable as those for births and deaths. For migration within the UK, patient re-registrations with NHS doctors (the National Health Service Central Register) is used as a proxy quarterly measure, supplemented with ten-yearly information from the Census. The NHSCR is considered quite reliable for the very young and elderly, but may often fail to record moves by young people of ‘student age’ who do not expect to use health services. International migration is recorded using the International Passenger Survey, which has a small sample size, with immigration data supplemented with Census data; international emigration – which cannot be covered by the Census - is the most difficult to assess.
Improved International Migration and Population Statistics1.17 NHSCR records indicate that 136,000 people moved into the South West from the rest of the UK between mid-2005 and mid-2006,
and 108,000 moved out to the rest of the UK. The balance between them, or net migration, was 28,000. In- and net-migration were at their lowest levels since 1996, and out-migration at its lowest since 1995, but both grew in 2006. The 2001 Census
recorded 154,413 people coming into the South West in the previous year, of whom 28,834 were from outside the UK. A far higher
number - 446,562 people, or 9% of the population - moved within the region in the same period.
1.18 The propensity to migrate varies with age, as can be seen in the graph. The biggest 'churn' takes place for those in their early 20's, reflecting migration to learn, leaving home to take up jobs and the greater flexibility of people not encumbered with owner-occupancy and children. Thereafter the tendency to migrate declines steadily with age. The net gain of population - the small difference between the two flows - shows relatively smaller variation with age. There is a peak between the ages of 30 and 44 (with a smaller peak in the under 5 age group made up of the main group's children), and the only loss to the region is in the 20-24 age group, when more female students leave the region for study than enter it. These figures should be contrasted with the perception of the South West as receiving mainly those over retirement age; only 11% of gain through migration is of over 60's.
1.19 The Census provides more detailed and comprehensive migration information than the NHS Central Register, but the latest available data are from April 2001. This showed that employees, the self-employed and unemployed accounted for a third of the region’s net gain with the rest of the UK. Only three other regions - the South East, East and East Midlands - also made net gains amongst this ‘ economically active’ group.
Census data is available on the NOMIS website.
1.20 Although it is the most reliable source for most migration, the Census is unable to provide any information on migrants from the South West who left the United Kingdom. The 2001 Census recorded 19% of in-migrants to the South West in the year before enumeration had come from abroad. The more recent, but less robust, figures from the International Passenger Survey for 2005 showed an estimate of 40,000 (±4,200 at 95% confidence) immigrants to the region, and 24,000 (±4,700) emigrants from the South West. The South West received about 8% of the UK’s immigrants and provided about 7% of the UK’s emigrants according to this survey.
1.21 Half of all in-migrants came from the South East (44%) and London (23%). The destination of out-migrants was broadly similar to that of in-migrants’ origins, if somewhat less concentrated: 49% moved to the South East (33%) and London (16%). Net migration is the balance between two flows and it is impossible to identify any individuals as ‘net migrants’. Nevertheless, it is useful to examine the changing relationship between the South West and other regions. It is striking that since 2003 the differences between regions have narrowed, with the South East and London declining in importance and small losses of population to Wales and Northern Ireland also diminishing.
1.22 The accession of ten new members of the EU on the 1 May 2004 is widely reported as having led to significant in-migration to the region. Between 2005/06 and 2006/07, the total number of migrant workers, based on National Insurance registration in the South West, rose from 38,490 to 41,710. The registration figures for 2006/07 show 23,170 (56%) of those registering were citizens of the latest accession countries.