Simulations, Projections and Forecasts

The simulations, projections and forecasts section provides articles using economic modelling techniques. This work involves building and applying two types of models of the South West Economy: projection/forecasting models to indicate short-to-medium term trends for the region, industries and sub-regions: and policy simulation models to analyse the longer-term effects of policy changes and economic 'shocks' on employment, income and growth. Both models are based on information from the South West Regional Accounts, supplemented by additional information from ONS sources and from original research.

Simulations

The simulation model is based on the 'computable general equilibrium' methodology, which tries to imitate the effects on market processes. The South west model is based on the 'AMOS' model of Scotland developed by the Fraser of Allander Institute at the University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.  
 
Computable general equilibrium models have been widely used in policy analysis at a national level and have also been widely applied to analyse regional economies. There use in the UK has, however, been hindered by the absence of comprehensive regional accounts for the UK regions - with the exception of Scotland. The development, by the BEM, of detailed and comprehensive regional accounts for the South West have allowed the development of this very powerful analytical tool in advance of most other UK regions.  
 
The BEM steering group have developed an annual simulation plan, the results of which will be published on the simulations page.

Projections and Forecasts

The projections and forecasts, produced biannually (Spring and Autumn), identify trends in economic activity within the South West which are used to produce short-to-medium term projections of economic output and employment by industry and sub-region.