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Climate Change (Environment, State of the South West 2011)

7.7.1 The UK is committed to an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, and a recommended cut of up to 42% by 2020. Recent research shows that although we need to reduce emissions to stay below an increase of 2oC, it is now acknowledged that there is a significant risk that global temperatures could rise by 4oC (DECC).

‘Warming to the idea: building resilience to extreme weather and climate change in the South West’ updates the summary report of a scoping study carried out in 2003, which summarised the impacts of climate change across a number of sectors in the South West. The updated publication incorporates the latest climate projections (UK Climate Projections 2009) and reflects current understanding of the key issues and adaptation opportunities for the South West (Climate South West, 2010).

7.7.2 Global average temperatures have risen by nearly 0.8oC since the late 19th century, rising at about 0.2oC/decade over the past 25 years (United Kingdom Climate Impacts Partnership).

7.7.3 Annual average daily mean temperature in the South West has increased by 1.37°C between 1961 and 2006, similar to annual trends in London, South East and East of England (Figure 1.4). However, this increase has been larger in winter (1.72°C) than in summer (1.41°C). A similar pattern exists for changes in average daily minimum and maximum temperature.

7.7.4 Over the last 250 years, there has been a slight trend for increased rainfall in winter and decreased rainfall in summer, a trend which is in line with the expected changes. All regions of the UK have experienced an increase over the past 45 years in the amount of winter rain that falls in heavy downpours.

7.7.5 Between 1961 and 2006 there has been increased seasonal and annual total precipitation in the South West, with the largest increase seen in autumn (28.6%). The only exception to this pattern is a small decrease in total precipitation during summer (8.8%). During the same time period the South West has also experienced a small increase in the number of days of rain in autumn and winter and a small decrease in the number of days of rain in spring and summer.

7.7.6 Climate change is expected to increase the risk of river and urban flooding in our region. Our long, varied coastline will be affected by rising sea levels, with an expected increase in risk of flooding for our low lying coastal communities. More information about 7.6 'Flooding' is available in this report.

7.7.7 Global sea-level rise has accelerated between the mid 19th and mid 20th century and is now at about 3mm per year. It is likely that human activities have contributed to between a quarter and a half of this rise in the last half of the 20th century. Absolute sea level (i.e. corrected for land movement) around the South West has risen by around 1 mm/yr over the 20th century (Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory), and there are indications that the increase has been at a faster rate than this in the 1990s and 2000s. The nature of land movement in the South West (where land levels are generally getting lower through time) is likely to enhance the effect of rising sea levels.

Table 7.7.1 Sea level change at Newlyn (Cornwall) since 1946

Average annual change in mean sea level	1.0 mm / yr
Average annual change in extreme high water level	2.1 mm / yr
Average annual change in extreme low water level	1.3 mm / yr
Source: Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory

7.7.8 There is some evidence that annual average extremes in high water are increasing faster than annual average extremes in low water. Sea surface temperature around the UK coast has also risen by 0.7°C in the last 30 years.

7.7.9 The Government indicates that we are currently on the medium emissions path in terms of greenhouse gas emissions. Based on the data from UKCP09, the data below provides an overview of the key findings for the South West for the 2020s under the medium emissions scenarios. The 'central estimate' (i.e. The value at the 50% probability level) is reported first, followed by the wider range of uncertainty in brackets. The wider range uses the minimum value at the 10% probability level and the maximum at the 90% probability level, across all three emission scenarios, High (SRES A1FI), Medium (SRES A1B) and Low (SRES B1).

7.7.10 In the South West under medium emissions:

Table 7.7.2 Future seasonal climate (2020)

Season	2020s
Spring
Mean Temperature	Warmer by 1.2 deg C (0.62 - 1.9)
Precipitation	Marginally wetter by 0.1% (-7.3 to + 8.7%)
Cloud Cover	Decrease of -2.7% (6.7 to +2.2%)
Relative Humidity	Decrease of -1.2% (-3.8% to +0.9%)
Summer
Mean Temperature	Warmer by 1.6 deg C (05 to 2.7)
Precipitation	Drier by 8% (-26.6. to + 17.5%)
Cloud cover	Decrease of -5.7% (-14.2 to +4.5%)
Relative Humidity	Decrease of -3.1% (-8.2 to +2.6%)
Autumn
Mean Temperature	Warmer by 1.5 deg C (0.77 to 2.5)
Precipitation	Wetter by 1.5% (-12.1 to + 16%)
Cloud Cover	Decrease of -2.0% (-6.3 to 1.8%)
Relative Humidity	Negligible decrease of -0.5% (-2.3 to +1%)
Winter
Mean Temperature	Warmer by 1.3 deg C (0.46 to 2.0)
Precipitation	Wetter by 7% (-3.1 to +19.6%)
Cloud Cover	No change (-2.2 to +19.6%)
Relative Humidity	Negligible decrease of -0.1% (-0.6 to +0.5%)
Annual
Mean Temperature	Warmer by 1.4 deg C (0.74 to 2.1)
Precipitation	No change (-4.8% to 6.0%)
Cloud Cover	Decrease of -2.7% (-6.0 to +0.9%)
Relative Humidity	Decrease of -1.2% (-2.9 to +0.4%)

7.7.11 More information is available from Climate South West

7.7.12 Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main greenhouse gas, accounting for about 85% of the total UK greenhouse gas emissions. In 2009, UK net emissions of carbon dioxide were provisionally estimated to be 480.9 million tonnes (Mt); 9.8% lower than in 2008. (Department of Energy and Climate Change, 2009).

7.7.13 Provisional estimates released by DECC in 2010 also show that between 2008 and 2009, there were significant decreases in CO2 emissions from all the main sectors (based on the source of emissions); 11.3% (23.7 Mt) from the energy supply sector, 15.3% (13.1 Mt) from the business sector, 6.5% (8.5 Mt) from the transport sector and 4.9% (4.0 Mt) from the residential sector.

7.7.14 Estimates on emissions by 'end-user' are also calculated, using the final UK inventory on emissions by source. The 'end-user' being that emissions are distributed according to the point of energy consumption (or point of emission, if not energy related). Except for the energy industry, emissions from the production of goods are assigned to where the production takes place – thus as with the national inventories, emissions from the production of goods which are exported will be included, and emissions from the production of goods which are imported are excluded.

7.7.15 New data for local Authority areas in England has been released for 2008 (Department of Energy and Climate Change, 2010).

7.7.16 A total of 506,526 kt of end user CO2 was emitted in the UK in 2008. The South East had the highest emissions in England, with 12.6% (63,773 kt) of the UK total, whilst the North East had the lowest with 6.2% (31,374 kt). 40,517 kt of end user CO2 emissions came from the South West, accounting for 8% of the UK total and the third lowest recorded by a region in England. Out of the region's county and unitary authority areas, Devon recorded the highest end user CO2 emissions in 2008, with 6,096 kt;15% of the regional total. The lowest was in the Isles of Scilly with 20 kt; less than 1% of the regional total.

7.7.17 Between 2005 and 2008 total CO2 emissions in the South West declined by 4.6%, from 42,454 kt to 40,517 kt respectively. This was equal to the decline experienced in the UK as a whole. All counties and unitaries in the
South West recorded a reduction in total emissions over this time. The highest reduction was seen in South Gloucestershire with 15%.

Figure 7.7.1 Percentage change in total end user CO2 emissions in the South West 2005
to 2008

[ Zoom ]

Percentage change in total end user CO2 emissions in the South West 2005 to 2008 (7.7.1). Source: DECC.

7.7.18 A total of 8.2 tonnes of CO2 was emitted per capita in the UK in 2008. Per capita emissions were highest in the North East with 12.2 tonnes and lowest in Greater London with 6 tonnes. In the South West, a total of 7.8 tonnes were emitted per resident. This was 5% (0.4 tonnes) lower than the UK average and the 4th lowest recorded by a region.

7.7.19 Between 2005 and 2008 per capita emissions in the South West declined from 8.3 tonnes to 7.8 tonnes. This was similar to the UK average, which declined from 8.8 tonnes to 8.2 tonnes.

7.7.20 In the UK, 45.0% (228,137 kt) of end-user emissions assigned to local authority areas were attributed to the industrial and commercial sector in 2008, 29.5% (149,317 kt) to the domestic sector, and 25.9% (131,045 kt) to road transport. A further 1,974 kt of CO2 emissions were attributed to land use, land use change and forestry.

7.7.21 In the South West, 36.0% (14,607 kt) of end user emissions were attributed to the industrial & commercial sector in 2008, 32.4% (13,112 kt) to the domestic sector, 28.8% (11,664 kt) to road transport and 2.8% (1,133 kt)
to land use, land use change and forestry.

Figure 7.7.2 CO2 emission estimates by sector in the South West 2008

[ Zoom ]

CO2 emission estimates by sector in the South West 2008 (Fig 7.7.2). Source: DECC.

7.7.22 At a county and unitary authority level, Wiltshire had the highest industrial and commercial CO2 emissions with 2016 kt (13.8% of the regional total). Devon had the highest domestic CO2 emissions (1,976 kt or 15.1% of the regional total), road transport CO2 emissions (1,834 kt or 15.7% of the regional total), and land, landuse change and forestry CO2emissions (345 kt 30.4% of the regional total).

Figure 7.7.3 Total end user emissions by sector, 2008, in the South West's county and unitary authorities

[ Zoom ]

Total end user emissions by sector, 2008, in the South West's county and unitary authorities (Fig 7.7.3). Source: DECC.

7.7.23 More information about climate change is available on the Climate South West website and the South West Environment website. See also the 'Flooding' section of this report.