Components of Change (Population and Migration, State of the South West 2011)

1.5.1 Population change is determined by the balance of births and deaths combined with the effect of migration (national and international; see also Migration, within this section). These effects are known as the "components of
(population) change". Over the previous 10 years, the regions growth has resulted mainly from migration, as deaths outstripped births in every year from 1996/97, through to 2004/05. However, recent years have begun to indicate
a reversal of this trend. The last four years have seen an increase in natural change, with births beginning to outstrip deaths in the South West.

1.5.2 In 2008/09, the levels of both migration and natural change dropped in the South West, indicating a slowing down in population growth in the region. Despite the drop, natural change still accounted for a greater proportion of the regions’ population growth, relative to migration and other changes, than has been seen in the preceding ten years.

Figure 1.5.1 Components of Change, South West, 1996/7 to 2008/09

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Components of Change, South West, 1996/7 to 2008/09 (Fig 1.5.1). Source: ONS.

1.5.3 There were 58,338 live births to mothers usually resident in the South West in 2009. For both the South West and the England and Wales, 2009 is the first year since 2001 to see a drop in birth numbers, reversing the trend of
steady annual increases. Previous years haveseen a particularly steep rise in birth numbers in the region, with the total number of births increasing by 21% between 2001 and 2008. This is similar to the increase in numbers of births in England and Wales, of 19% over the same time period.

Figure 1.5.2 Births and Deaths in South West England, 1991 - 2009

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Births and Deaths in South West England, 1991 - 2009 (Fig 1.5.2). Source: ONS.

1.5.4 The total number of births in a region is affected by the number of women of childbearing age in a population, as well as the number of children born to each woman. Women's propensity to have children is measured by the
fertility rate. In 2009, the South West had 60 births per thousand women aged 15 - 44, compared to 64 for England. These figures remain the same as 2008. The Total Fertility Rate - effectively the average number of children per completed family - in the South West in 2009 was 1.94, lower than the England average of 1.96 (but identical to last year's TFR for the region).

1.5.5 In 2008, the South West ranked equal sixth of all of the nine English regions for TFR, ahead of the North East and Yorkshire and Humber. In 2009, the region slightly increased it's relative position, ranking fifth highest of the
nine regions.

1.5.6 The pattern of childbearing through life has changed over recent years, with a tendency of women to choose to have children later in life. The fertility rate of women in their twenties has fallen, whilst that of those over thirty has risen. Surveys suggest that this is in order to achieve financial security before having children. Age specific fertility patterns in the South West generally follow the England average, but are noticeably lower in those under 20 (21.5 per 1000 compared to 25.1 per 1000); and marginally greater for those aged 25 to 29 (111.7 per 1000 compared to 106.8 per 1000) and 30 to 34 (117.2 per 1000 compared to 113.5 per 1000). The slightly higher fertility rate amongst mothers in their late twenties and early thirties in could in part account for the recent increases
in natural change in the region.

Figure 1.5.3 Age specific Total Fertility Rates (TFR), South West and England, 2009

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Age specific Total Fertility Rates (TFR), South West and England, 2009 (Fig 1.5.3). Source: ONS.

1.5.7 Data on fertility rates by age and region can be found on the ONS website at Births in England and Wales.

1.5.8 Increases in natural change at a national level have been examined and are well documented (ONS Statistical Bulletin, December 2009), and are considered by ONS to be as a result of increasing fertility rates among women born in the UK and the increasing population of non-UK born women of childbearing age. The South West had one of the lowest populations of women born outside of the UK, of all of the English regions, in 2008. In the UK, between 2004 and 2008, the proportion of women born outside of the UK increased by 23%. In the South West, the increase was 26%. As such whilst the actual proportion of women born outside the UK in the region is low, the rate of increase is above the national rate.

1.5.9 The total number of live births in the South West region was 48,700 in 2001 and 58,338 in 2009. The number of mothers in the South West born overseas grew from about 3,600 to 8,003 (from 7.4 to 13.7 per cent of the
total). Forty three per cent of the births to overseas mothers in 2009 were to mothers born in the EU, of which just over half were to mothers from accession states (25% of the total).

1.5.10 Rising levels of natural change are therefore most likely to be a combination of rising fertility rates (as is being seen nationally), fertility rates in certain age brackets being higher regionally and nationally, and a rise in the proportion of non-UK born women of childbearing age, within the region. As already noted in this section, whilst levels of natural change have dropped slightly in the last year, the overall trend of recent years is of increase of natural change both regionally and nationally.

Deaths

1.5.11 There were 52,101 registered deaths in the South West in 2009. The number of deaths fell slightly between 1995 and 2005, but has been slowly rising again, since 1995 (see Figure 1.5.2), before dropping again in the last
year. Causes of death are examined in the Public Health chapter. For all ages, the likelihood of death for a South West resident was the same as or lower than the England average. Taking the measure of this for all ages combined - the 'standardized mortality rate' - for the UK as 100, the South West's index is 92, with England as
100. For both men and women, the South West's SMR is the lowest of all the English regions.

Figure 1.5.4 Age specific death rates, South West and England, 2009

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Age specific death rates, South West and England, 2009 (Fig 1.5.4). Source: ONS.

1.5.12 Migration is a particular issue in the South West, with a large number of individuals attracted to the region, due to it’s perceived high quality of life. This section will explore patterns of migration within the region, noting variations
at a subregional level. This section will cover national migration (migration to the South West from other regions, and migration away from the South West to other regions), and international migration (movements into the region from outside of the UK, and vice versa).

1.5.13 Sources and Reliability - Migration patterns are the most difficult elements of demography to measure and project. Annual numbers of migrants generally vary more than birth and death rates (with economic conditions - especially job loss or creation, house prices and house building) and there is no register of migration as reliable as those for births and deaths. For migration within the UK, patient re-registrations with NHS doctors (the National Health Service Central Register) is used as a proxy quarterly measure, supplemented with ten-yearly information from the Census. The NHSCR is considered quite reliable for the very young and elderly, but may often fail to record moves by young people of 'student age' who do not expect to use health services. International migration is recorded using the International Passenger Survey, which has a small sample size, with immigration data supplemented with Census data; international emigration - which cannot be covered by the Census - is the most difficult to measure.

National Migration

1.5.14 NHSCR records indicate that 123,600 people moved into the South West from the rest of the UK between mid-2009 and mid-2010, and 105,000 moved out to the rest of the UK. The balance between them, or net migration, was 19,000. Net migration peaked in 2002 (34,800). Net migration fell slightly between 2002 and 2006, before increasing again. The last three years however have shown a drop again in net moves, and particularly in inwards migration. This may be related to the economic climate making moves less affordable and viable (see also, Housing chapter).

Figure 1.5.5 Migration flows to and from the South West, from within the UK, 1995 - 2010

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Migration flows to and from the South West, from within the UK, 1995 - 2010 (Fig 1.5.5). Source: NHSCR/ONS.

1.5.15 The South West ranked second of the nine English regions, for population gain from national migration, in 2009/2010, behind the South East.

1.5.16 The propensity to migrate varies with age. The South West has a net outflow of younger people aged between 16 and 24 whereas the number of retirees and older people migrating to the region has been steadily increasing. In 2008/09, the largest group of net migrants as a result of national migration, were aged 45-64, as it was in 2007/08. This represents a shift in the trend of the last few years; since 2001/02 the majority of in-migrants were aged 25-44.

1.5.17 Traditionally, net migrants to the South West came from the South East and London. More recent data indicates that the differences between the regions have narrowed, representing a general tailing off of migration
levels. Between 2007 and 2009, drops in in-migration from the South East and Northern Ireland and Scotland were particularly pronounced. The most recent year's data indicates that, whilst overall in-migration has slowed, migration to the South West from the South East and Eastern regions may be starting to increase.

Figure 1.5.6 Net gains to the South West from Migration within the UK by Region, June 1995 to June 2010

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Net gains to the South West from Migration within the UK by Region, June 1995 to June 2010 (Fig 1.5.6). Source: NHSCR, ONS.

International Migration

1.5.18 Our knowledge of international migration is more sparse, and the data sources slightly less reliable, as noted in 1.5.11.

1.5.19 International migration is calculated as part of the ONS mid year population estimates, and have been made available by the Population Estimates Unit (PEU). The primary source is the International Passenger Survey, as noted in 1.5.12. The data for the latest two years indicates a drop in retention of international migrants in the region. Between mid-2007 and mid-2008, there was a net balance of -780 international migrants. Between mid-2008 and
mid-2009, the balance was -3,580. This indicates that 3,580 more residents from the region were emigrating than were gained through immigration.

1.5.20 Figure 1.5.7 below shows change in population as a result of migration for all of the nine English regions. This is useful in comparing the relative effects of national and international migration. Whilst the South West ranks second of the English regions for net national migration, it is the only English region experiencing a net loss of inhabitants as a result of international migration. Gains as a result of international migration were greatest in London, the South
East, and Yorkshire and The Humber.

Figure 1.5.7 International, National and Net Migration effects by region, 2008/09

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International, National and Net Migration effects by region, 2008/09 (Fig 1.5.7). Source: ONS.

1.5.21 Elsewhere, Observatory Network research has commented on the likely patterns of international migration. SLIM, the Skills and Learning Intelligence Module of the South West Observatory, stated in 2007 that the number of non-UK national insurance applications from new EU country nationals working in the South West had increased from 15,460 in 2002/03 to 41,730 in 2006/07. However, more recent research conflicts with these findings; work completed by Equality South West for example states that inflows of migrant workers to the South West seem to have declined from their peak in 2006/07 to approximately 38,900 in 2007/08.

1.5.22 Bristol, Gloucestershire, Cornwall and Devon were amongst the English upper tier authorities with the highest increases in population due to migration in 2008/09. Meanwhile, Torbay, Devon, Somerset and Dorset were amongst the authorities with the biggest decreases due to natural change. This is unsurprising; those authorities with an older population (Also see Local Authorities Population Estimates Tool), are those also seeing significant
decreases in natural change. Figure 1.5.8 below indicates the sub-regional variation.

Figure 1.5.8 Components of population change by county and unitary authority, South West, mid-2008 to mid-2009 (sorted by total change)

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Components of population change by county and unitary authority, South West, mid-2008 to mid-2009 (sorted by total change) (Fig 1.5.8). Source: ONS.

Figure 1.5.9 below indicates change in population as a result of migration, broken down by national and international migration, for just the Upper Tier authorities in the region. This is useful in comparing the relative effects of national and international migration.

Figure 1.5.9 International, National and Net Migration effects by Upper Tier Authority in the
South West, 2008/09

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International, National and Net Migration effects by Upper Tier Authority in the South West, 2008/09 (Fig 1.5.9). Source: ONS mid year population estimates 2009.

Figure 1.5.9 indicates that, of the Upper Tier authorities in the region, international migration is responsible for the largest increases in population in Bristol, Swindon, Gloucestershire and Plymouth. Dorset, Somerset, Devon and
Cornwall meanwhile have seen large net decreases in the last year owing to international migration. In spite of high inflows from internal migration, both Dorset and Somerset saw a net outflow of inhabitants in 2008/09, owing to the
negative effects of international migration. All other upper tier authority areas in the region saw net inflows as a result of all migration activity.