Key Themes (Population and Migration, State of the South West 2011)

1.1.1 Classified as the most rural English region, the South West covers the largest area of the 9 English regions.

1.1.2 The South West has a relatively small total population; the 3rd smallest of the 9 English regions, exceeding only the East Midlands and the North East. It is the region with the lowest population density.

1.1.3 Although overall the region has a low population density, the population has been growing at a rate faster than the English rate. This trend is predicted to continue. Population growth has slowed in the region over the last couple of years.

1.1.4 Historically levels of net inwards migration have been very high in the region, although the latest data shows a tailing off of this trend, with migrant inflows dropping. This may be related to economic conditions making moving to the region less viable for many (see also, the Housing chapter).

1.1.5 Migration remains however the primary driver of demographic change in the South West, although recent years have seen a slight increase in the effects of natural change (the balance of births minus deaths), relative to migration.

1.1.6 The South West continues to have a greater proportion of inhabitants of pensionable age than all other English regions. The proportion of pensionable age is set to rise both nationally and regionally.

1.1.7 At a subregional level, the age structure of the population is more varied. Bristol, Exeter, Swindon and Plymouth have much higher proportions of their population of working age, for example, than does the South West as a whole.

1.1.8 The South West has one of the smallest ethnic minority populations of all of the English regions, in 2001 (although there are subregional variations to this; Bristol being the most notable).

1.1.9 This increase in natural change mirrors the pattern seen in the rest of the UK, which may be in part a result of rising fertility rates amongst women in older age brackets. In the UK, fertility rates are falling amongst the under 20s, but are growing amongst those over 30. The South West has fertility rates marginally above the UK average, amongst women aged 24 – 35.

1.1.10 Despite overall increases in natural change over recent years, the latest years' data does show a drop in birth rates both regionally and nationally. It is not clear yet whether this trend will continue; future years' data should be closely monitored to see how this develops.

1.1.11 The number of households in the South West is projected to show significant increases between 2008 and 2033. The greatest increases will be seen amongst one-person households, and households headed by those aged 65+.

1.1.12 Regional population change is a barometer of wider changes in the economy and society, but is also the fundamental denominator against which those changes need to be set. Rurality, growth and the comparatively elderly
age structure of the South West's population impact on many themes throughout this report. Rurality, for example, affects transport and patterns of deprivation, growth both fuels and "dilutes" the effect of economic growth, and the ageing population profoundly affects changes in the labour market. Many people migrate for work, with the high environmental quality of the South West contributing to in-migration, and hence the population growth of the South West.