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Population Structure (Population and Migration, State of the South West 2011)

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1.6.2 In mid 2009, women slightly outnumber men, as is the case for the UK as a whole. This differential has altered only marginally over recent years, and is similar to that seen for the UK. Women outnumber men in every age category over 30 in the region, and the differential increases with age. In the over 85s, for example, the South West has over double the number of women, compared with men.
1.6.3 In mid 2009, the South West had the lowest proportion of young people (0-15) of all the English regions. It also had the third lowest proportion of working age people (16 – 64 Male, 16 – 59 Female), of all of the English regions. This represents a slight increase in it's relative position, compared with last year, where it had the lowest working age population in England. Unsurprisingly by contrast, 22.9 per cent of the population were of retirement age and above, the highest proportion of any English region. This represents a slight increase on last year, when 22.5% of the population were of that age.

1.6.4 At a sub-regional level, West Somerset district had the highest proportion of it's population of pensionable age, at 34.2%. Christchurch in Dorset had the second highest in the region. Interestingly, West Somerset and Christchurch ranked first and second highest for this measure for England as well as for the South West.

Figure 1.6.1 Proportion of the population of pensionsable age (60F, 65M), mid-2009

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Proportion of the population of pensionsable age (60F, 65M), mid-2009 (Fig 1.6.1)
Proportion of the population of pensionsable age (60F, 65M), mid-2009 (Fig 1.6.1). Contains OS Data; Source: ONS.
1.6.5 The proportion of the South West's population made up by older people is set to rise over the next 25 years. According to the 2008-based projections, by 2033, just under 30% of the population in the South West will be of (the current) pensionable age (65+ male; 60+ female).

1.6.6 Significant increases are also anticipated in the 85+ age bracket. It is predicted that by 2033, the South West over 85s population will have increased from 2.7% of the population at the 2008-baseline, to 5.9%. The proposed rise in England is lower, with 2.2% of the population made up of over 85s in 2008,rising to 4.6% in 2033.

1.6.7 The elderly age distribution of our region’s population may have wide-ranging impacts, including potentially those on health, housing and climate change. It should be noted that the South West’s ageing population does not necessarily equate with poor health; evidence tells us that mature adults in the region are healthier than those in the rest of England. The elderly may however be more at risk to some of the impacts of climate change; with predictions from the NHS that either increasing or decreasing temperatures could have an impact on mortality, particularly amongst the elderly. See also, the Public Health chapter.

1.6.8 There are some notable subregional variations to the ageing trend. Four of the total 37 District and Unitary Authorities within the region are amongst the 20% in England with the highest percentage of working age population (WAP; Bristol, Exeter, Swindon, and Plymouth) in mid-2009, for example; with 20 among the quintile with the lowest proportion.

1.6.9 Figure 1.6.2 below displays the change in WAP between 2003 and 2009, amongst the regions' District and Unitary authorities.

Figure 1.6.2 Change in working age population (WAP), 2003 - 2009

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Change in working age population (WAP), 2003 - 2009 (Fig 1.6.2)
Change in working age population (WAP), 2003 - 2009 (Fig 1.6.2). Contains OS Survey Data; Source: ONS Mid 2009 Population Estimates.
1.6.10 Bristol, Exeter, Plymouth and Swindon have all experienced high rises in WAP (within the highest 20% proportional increases, when compared with all local authorities in England) over the given time period. The rate of increase in the WAP in these four local authority areas has been at a rate faster to that seen within both the region, and England. Between 2003 and 2009, the working age populations in Bristol and Exeter grew by 15 and 10% respectively, compared to 4% in England, and in the South West.

1.6.11 Even though we have the lowest proportion of our population in the working age brackets, when compared with all English regions, growth of this age group in recent years is on a par with national growth levels. This is likely to be the influence of the four city areas; with this growth being primarily as a result of in-migration.

1.6.12 The region has a lower proportion of its population who are young people (0 - 15), than does England, in mid-2009. However, Swindon, North Somerset, Mid Devon and Christchurch were all amongst the 20% of district and unitary authorities in the country with the greatest proportional increases in young people over that time period. West Somerset was the authority area in the region with the greatest proportional decrease in young people over this time period, with an 11% decrease in the number of young people in 2009, compared with 2003. The variation in change across the region is displayed in Figure 1.6.3 below.

Figure 1.6.3 South West Unitary Authorities and Districts % Change in Population Aged 15 and Under 2003 - 2009

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South West Unitary Authorities and Districts % Change in Population Aged 15 and Under 2003 - 2009 (Fig 1.6.3)
South West Unitary Authorities and Districts % Change in Population Aged 15 and Under 2003 - 2009 (Fig 1.6.3). Contains OS Data; Source: ONS.
1.6.13 The 2001 Census provides the most reliable and detailed information about ethnicity. Less than 2% of the total regional population were categorised as being of ethnic minority origin in 2001; one of the lowest figures of all the English regions. The principal exception to this is Bristol; where levels of diversity are much closer to the national picture, as demonstrated in the Figure below.

Figure 1.6.4 Black and Minority Ethnic Population, 2001

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Black and Minority Ethnic Population, 2001 (Fig 1.6.4)
Black and Minority Ethnic Population, 2001 (Fig 1.6.4). Contains OS Data; Source Census 2001, ONS.
1.6.14 The Census figures have been updated by the Office for National Statistics on an experimental basis, along with the mid year population estimates. The latest estimates are for mid-2007, and show a similar picture.
Whereas, in the region overall, just over 95% of the population sit within the categories of “white british”, “white irish”, or “white other”; within Bristol this figure is lower, at 88.1%, and is similar to the figure for the whole of England, of 88.2%.

1.6.15 The Annual Population Survey (APS) gives estimates of population by country of birth and nationality. These figures showed that between 2004 and 2010 the population of the UK who were born outside of the UK increased from 5.3 million to 6.8 million. This represents an increase from 9% to 12% of the UK population. Whilst this increase has been observed across the UK, the South West has seen one of the smallest increases. In 2010, 93.8% of the South West population were born in the UK. This is the second highest among the English regions, behind the North East. The Survey suggests that Polish was the most prevalent foreign nationality in the region in 2010 and that more South West residents were born in Poland and Germany than in any other nation, the latter mainly due to the large number of families of armed forces personnel in the region.