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Trends (Population and Migration, State of the South West 2011)

1.4.1 The South West's population grew by 577,672 between 1989 and 2009, at an annual average growth rate of 0.6%. In the 1990s, the average annual growth rate was 0.5%; in the 21st Century the average has been 0.7%.

Figure 1.4.1 South West population growth, 1984 - 2009, and projected population growth, 2010 - 2033

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South West population growth, 1984 - 2009, and projected population growth, 2010 - 2033 (Fig 1.4.1). Source: ONS.

1.4.2 Although having one of the smallest total populations, the South West has seen the fastest rate of population growth, of all of the English regions, over the past 20 years. The growth rate has been higher than the growth rate seen in England over the past 20 years; this trend is predicted to continue.

1.4.3 All district and Unitary authorities in the region have seen a rise in population over the past 20 years, with the exception of Plymouth, which has remained more or less static over this time period. Rates of growth have however
varied in the region.

1.4.4 The two maps below are useful in indicating this variation in growth rate. Between 1999 and 2009, almost three quarters (27) of South West districts and unitary authorities had population growth faster than England as a
whole, and several (6) had populations that grew at more than twice this rate. Between 1989 and 2009, the number of authorities with these high comparative rates of growth was even greater.

Figure 1.4.2 South West Unitary and District Authorities, % Change in Total Population 1989-2009

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South West Unitary and District Authorities, % Change in Total Population 1989-2009 (Fig 1.4.2). Contains OS Data; Source: ONS.

Figure 1.4.3 South West Unitary and District Authorities, % Change in Total Population, 1999 - 2009

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South West Unitary and District Authorities, % Change in Total Population, 1999 - 2009 (Fig 1.4.3)

Contains OS Data; Source: ONS Mid 2009 Population Estimates.

1.4.5 The maps above illustrate some differences in which areas have the highest and lowest rates of growth in the two periods. Areas that are more darkly shaded in the bottom map compared to the top map are likely to have had fastest population growth in the last 10 years, compared to the period 1989 to 1999. Those areas that are more darkly shaded in the top map compared to the bottom map had the greatest growth in the period 1989 to 1999, compared to 1999 to 2009.

1.4.6 The South West authorities with the fastest population growth were broadly similar for both periods. Torridge had the fastest growth in the region between 1989 and 2009, and between 1999 to 2009. Some areas have seen more varied levels of growth; South Gloucestershire, Wiltshire and North Dorset for example grew particularly quickly over the full twenty years, but have slowed down in the last ten.

1.4.7 For the South West, 2008-based population projections show a similar level of growth than previous projections may have indicated. By 2033, we can expect to see an overall population increase of 20%, compared with the mid-2008 baseline. This is greater than the overall predicted rises for England, of 17%. It should be noted that official projections of population growth take account of existing trends in birth, fertility, life expectancy, death and migration but do not reflect potential policy decisions in house building or economic change.

1.4.8 The highest levels of growth are forecast for the north of the region. North Somerset, Bristol and Swindon for example are all predicted to see increases of over 30% of their 2009 population, by 2033. The greatest numerical population increases are forecast for Bristol (which will see some additional 150,000 inhabitants over this time period), and Cornwall and Isles of Scilly, whose population is predicted to grow by almost 110,000.

Table 1.4.1 Local Authority Proposed Population Growth: 2009 - 2033 (District and Unitary only)

	2009 (000's)	2033 (000's)	Growth 2009 - 2033 (000's)	% change
Bath and North East Somerset	179.1	209.8	30.7	17.1
Bournemouth	165.2	179.7	14.5	8.7
Bristol, City of	434.1	585.8	151.7	34.9
North Somerset	210.1	289.9	79.8	38.0
Plymouth	258.1	308.4	50.3	19.5
Poole	141.3	159.7	18.4	13.0
South Gloucestershire	263.2	333.8	70.6	26.8
Swindon	198.7	258.9	60.2	30.3
Torbay	134.6	157.0	22.4	16.6
Cornwall and Isles of Scilly (w.effect from April 2009)*	535.7	645.5	109.8	20.5
Wiltshire UA (w.effect from April 2009)**	456.7	533.0	76.3	16.7
East Devon	134.2	165.4	31.2	23.0
Exeter	119.6	137.2	17.6	14.7
Mid Devon	76.3	93.5	17.2	22.5
North Devon	91.9	106.1	14.2	15.5
South Hams	83.9	96.7	12.8	15.3
Teignbridge	127.3	150.5	23.2	18.2
Torridge	66.0	84.2	18.2	27.6
West Devon	53.2	65.0	11.8	22.2
Christchurch	47.0	55.9	8.9	18.9
East Dorset	88.1	100.8	12.7	14.4
North Dorset	65.8	74.0	8.2	12.5
Purbeck	45.5	51.3	5.8	12.7
West Dorset	96.7	109.5	12.8	13.2
Weymouth and Portland	63.6	65.8	2.2	3.4
Cheltenham	113.6	132.1	18.5	16.3
Cotswold	84.0	97.2	13.2	15.7
Forest of Dean	83.3	94.0	10.7	12.8
Gloucester	117.5	140.7	23.2	19.7
Stroud	110.9	126.7	15.8	14.2
Tewkesbury	80.4	94.2	13.8	17.0
Mendip	109.3	126.6	17.3	15.8
Sedgemoor	113.1	136.3	23.2	20.5
South Somerset	159.8	187.6	27.8	17.4
Taunton Deane	109.3	128.4	19.1	17.5
West Somerset	35.6	40.5	4.9	13.8
Source: ONS Mid-year population projections, 2008-based Cornwall became a Unitary authority as of 1st April 2009. Isles of Scilly is however included within the total for Cornwall here, and is not shown separately, as the projections produced are not robust enough for such a small area. *Wiltshire became a Unitary authority as of 1st April 2009. The 2033 projection quoted here is the former county-level projection for Wiltshire.